A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
