1. The Villa Heist: Rogers & Emery's Masterclass
Can results be misleading? That is the question. The Villans' triumphant run persisted with a win over Manchester United, but so did the persistent questions. Statistically, they were inferior by a number of key indicators – less attempts (12-15), less possession (43-57), a scarcity of clear opportunities (2-3). Typically, the victory was tightly contested. As usual, statistical models painted a different picture: according to data United had the slight advantage 1.31-1.02. However, supporters understand games are not won by xG. They are won by solid teamwork, astute coaching and individual talent – and Villa possess each ingredient. The young forward might just be their primary talisman, but his contributions are coming as a timely gift. Unai Emery is crafty, battle-hardened, streets ahead of his counterpart. The fact Rogers took advantage from a positional error, it was likely because the coach had detected that his opponent was uncomfortable, and told Rogers to take up a wide position, cut in and exploit the space. Skill and strategy, in perfect harmony.
2. Amorim Continues to Fall Short
Following United's victory over Brighton 4-2 on 25 October, their fans felt optimism return. They secured three league games in a row for the maiden instance under their manager. They ascended to fourth. And the wins were solid results – over Brighton (a traditionally tricky opponent), Liverpool (away!) and Sunderland (in front of their own fans, versus a newly-promoted side, but still – an untroubled victory). Senne Lammens looked solid, Bryan Mbeumo offered threat and there was a positive mood. But then United slipped into a slump. In a run of eight matches, two wins, six disappointing results. In the recent fixture they were the better team without ever seeming like taking three points. Yes, their forward scored a good goal, but he also blazed over a simple chance. Yes, United were cursed by absentees (to key players), but they gave away cheap scores. After 13 months in England, the manager has yet to solve how to win consistently.
3. Arteta's Men Win Ugly to Return to the Summit
It was an evening fixture on the festive weekend but a noticeable shortage of fluency in the attacking areas made for a drab affair. For Everton, the issue was predictable with offensive players absent, and Jack Grealish unable to spark an entire team single-handedly. In many respects it is surprising that Everton sat fifth in the table two weeks earlier given they have played all term without a reliable number nine. For Arsenal and their manager, while he enjoyed a merited victory and reclaiming first place of the table, the flaw should be equally concerning given their ambitions for the Premier League. He stated that winning margins will inevitably be more emphatic with dedication and persistence. But it is fairly soon in the season for a team that can start with international stars, while leaving talented players on the bench, to be needing to win ugly.
4. Guardiola's Strict Festive Regime for Champions
During the holidays the Catalan coach will check the weights to ensure his Manchester City players have not enjoyed excessive celebrations. Guardiola said the players asked to enjoy a break after their recent victory but the request was denied because they didn’t play good enough. So the schedule involves rehabilitation, work for those who didn't feature, and following a short break, then 48 hours of preparation for the Nottingham Forest game. The manager outlined how the side can improve. “I’m good at reading what happens in the game, where are the spaces – if the players were in optimal spots, we could be more potent.” Pep also intends to enjoy a rest: “I have holidays with the family to relax. I'll visit Barcelona – I recommend it, the food is excellent.”
5. Liverpool's Joy Tempered by Isak Blow
The Swedish striker's finish at Tottenham felt, for a brief instant, like a statement. This was the very purpose Liverpool splashed the cash for him to do, to decide close contests with his intelligent runs and finishing ability, and the assurance with which he converted from a neat pass was highly promising. So the sight of him departing immediately, following a rash challenge, was a significant blow for Arne Slot and frustrating for fans who would like to see a top-class forward reach his peak again. Reports suggest Isak has sustained a fractured leg and he likely faces a long time on the sidelines. It would be a huge loss with Liverpool having quietly moved into the Champions League places, putting together a six-game unbeaten run bookended by Isak’s initial goals in their colours. Their fortunes this season appear tied up with those of their £125m investment.
6. A Contentious Call Saves Chelsea
Managers often lament contentious refereeing decisions as a means of diverting the narrative from matters they wish to avoid discussing. The 13 points Newcastle have dropped from winning positions this season is a prime example. Their manager certainly did not seem particularly eager to mention that unfortunate habit following his side’s inability to hold onto a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they ended up drawing. Yet Newcastle’s manager was surely justified in criticising a decision made by the referee not to award his team a penalty following a clear obstruction on the England international. With the score then 2-1, a 12-yard award could have changed the narrative. Was the decision to offer the opposing player the benefit of considerable doubt informed by past incidents for being very clever at drawing contact and sometimes going down too easily? Comments by a former England striker was revealing. “He sees the challenge coming,” came the observation. “He expects the tackle and he's ready. I think he intends to hit the deck. But the force and aggression there … it constitutes a foul.”
7. A 99.17% Certainty
Brentford’s maiden victory on the road this season spelled joy for Keith Andrews. Instead of reveling in the win, Andrews sympathised with Wolves, the club he joined at 16. “My formative years were here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is truly alarming; statistical models state – perhaps generously – their likelihood of the drop at 99.17%, leaving little tangible to fight for beyond honour. A veteran player brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly
